Speaker
Description
Dynamical simulation of the cascade failures on the EU and USA high-voltage power grids has been done via solving the second-order Kuramoto equation. We show that synchronization transition happens by increasing the global coupling parameter $K$ with metastable states depending on the initial conditions so that hysteresis loops occur. We provide analytic results for the time dependence of frequency spread in the large $K$ approximation and by comparing it with numerics of $d=2,3$ lattices, we find agreement in the case of ordered initial conditions. However, different power-law (PL) tails occur, when the fluctuations are strong. After thermalizing the systems we allow a single line cut failure and follow the subsequent overloads with respect to threshold values $T$. The PDFs $p(N_f)$ of the cascade failures exhibit PL tails near the synchronization transition point $K_c$. Near $K_c$ the exponents of the PL-s for the US power grid vary with $T$ as $1.4 \le \tau \le 2.1$, in agreement with the empirical blackout statistics, while on the EU power grid we find somewhat steeper PL-s characterized by $1.4 \le \tau \le 2.4$. Below $K_c$ we find signatures of $T$-dependent PL-s, caused by frustrated synchronization, reminiscent of Griffiths effects. Here we also observe stability growth following the blackout cascades, similar to intentional islanding, but for $K > K_c$ this does not happen. For $T < T_c$, bumps appear in the PDFs with large mean values, known as ``dragon king'' blackout events. We also analyze the delaying/stabilizing effects of instantaneous feedback or increased dissipation and show how local synchronization behaves on geographic maps.
